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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Monday, 02 November 20
PHILIPPINES GOVERNMENT SAYS NO TO NEW COAL PLANT PROPOSALS - IEEFA | 24 PILIPINAS
The Duterte administration will no longer accept proposals to construct new coal power plants, a dramatic shift in energy policy that counts on dec ...
Sunday, 01 November 20
GRADUAL RECOVERY FOR INDONESIAN COAL FROM 4Q20; RISKS REMAIN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the credit metrics of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors to improve from 4Q20 with the recovery in volumes and price ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
BIODIESEL - NEW FUELS, NEW CHALLENGES - GARD | DNV GL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
One of numerous possible ways to comply with the IMO’s strategy on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.35 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 127.94 points Monday, up 0.35 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global strive towards eco-friendliness and environmental sustainability in the shipping industry is mounting. There are currently almost 200 co ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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