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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Tuesday, 17 November 20
AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TO CHINA SLUMP, BUT PRICES ARE MIXED - REUTERS
China’s unofficial ban on coal imports from Australia is starting to take its toll on volumes, with departing cargoes down sharply so far in ...
Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously ex ...
Friday, 13 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Monday, 09 November 20
INDONESIA MAY CUT BIODIESEL USE TARGET AS SUBSIDY FUND DEPLETES - FITCH
The Indonesian government may rein in its push to increase use of biodiesel as it now comes at higher cost following a fall in crude oil prices and ...
Monday, 09 November 20
SOUTH AFRICA: COAL MARKET CONDITIONS HAVE ' DETERIORATED MATERIALLY' - IEEFA
The Asian seaborne thermal coal pool is drying out
Resource Generation Ltd’s proposed but long delayed Boikarabelo coal mine i ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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