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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Wednesday, 25 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Over 90% of the world’s goods are transported by sea. LPG is a clean, energy efficient and portable fuel that is being marketed at an afforda ...
Friday, 20 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 19 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we are moving towards the end of the year, the overall deal landscape of the dry bulk sector corresponding to the second half of 2020 (up to dat ...
Tuesday, 17 November 20
COAL SQUEEZE INTENSIFIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The message from the top is clear: cut out coal. While the regulatory pressure has been evident for some time, the race to banish the black stuff s ...
Tuesday, 17 November 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.35 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 128.72 points Monday, up 0.35 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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