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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Wednesday, 25 November 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: CHINA REMAINS THE DRIVING FACTOR, BUT COAL POLICY IS DISRUPTING THE MARKET - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The second half of the year has provided some cheer for the dry bulk market, with all ships in the spot market averaging earnings above the break-e ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
CHINA KICKS AN OWN GOAL WITH AUSTRALIAN COAL - FORBES
China’s annoyance at Australia’s hardline stance on political interference and demands for an independent inquiry into the root cause o ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
MINISTER - INDONESIA JAN-OCT COAL OUTPUT AT 459 MILLION TONNES - REUTERS
Indonesia coal output in the January to October period was 459 million tonnes, the country’s energy minister told parliament on Monday.
& ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
INDIA: MORE STEPS NEEDED TO MAKE COMMERCIAL COAL MINING ATTRACTIVE TO GLOBAL PLAYERS - LIVEMINT
India concluded its first commercial coal mine auctions earlier this month. A total of 19 coal mines spread across Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odish ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.38 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 129.21 points Monday, up 0.38 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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