We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 29 April 20
OIL CLOSES IN ON PEAK OVERSUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
Are we now deep in the abyss? Up to our necks in it, if the oil price is any guide. Brent has now tested sub-US$20/bbl in this downturn and WTI sub-zero, albeit briefly and in somewhat freakish circumstances. Where are the signs of stress across the oil value chain? And what are the prospects of finding an exit route to recovery? I talked it through with Ann-Louise Hittle of our Macro Oils team.
First, oil demand, which we think may be close to bottoming out. Decline has been sharp and deep as Covid-19 takes its toll on global economic activity. Much of the world is currently in lockdown, with more than 65% of the world’s population under travel restrictions. Global air travel and car use have nosedived in many countries. The big hit has been on jet fuel demand (down 50% year-on-year) and gasoline (down 25%). Diesel and fuel oil – used to transport goods by truck, ship and rail – have held relatively steady.
The net effect will be April’s demand falling by an average of 15 million to 18 million b/d year on year, based on the early April forecast from our Macro Oils Service. It’s a big number but may be bigger still on certain days or weeks in April and May. Some estimates have suggested declines of 20 million b/d or more.
A key question is when the global economic recovery that’s needed to kick start oil demand growth again will begin. Right now, we appear to be in limbo. India, France and the UK, among other big economies, have extended lockdowns into May. Italy, Spain, Austria and others have started to ease restrictions while several US states are considering re-opening in May. There are early signs of US gasoline demand stabilising.
China though is the model to watch as it emerges from lockdown. It has already started ratcheting up crude purchases in April to supply a reviving economy.
Second, inventory is building at superfast rates globally. Cushing, Oklahoma, is a microcosm of the wider picture. Oil prices in Texas have incentivised producers to send crude to the Cushing hub; weak demand from refineries in the Mid-West and Gulf Coast have kept it there. Storage tanks are filling up rapidly – the three largest weekly builds on record were in consecutive weeks from late March, based on Genscape’s proprietary twice-weekly tank monitoring.
Cushing’s tightening storage capacity played a central role in WTI’s ignominious dive into negative prices on 20 April, ahead of the May contract expiry. Traders and financial players were effectively ambushed – having to pay counterparties up to US$37/bbl to roll out of their expiring May contracts and into June.
Storage globally will stay tight so long as oversupply persists. Genscape estimates Cushing‘s spare capacity of up to 15 million b/d will be full within weeks, and other landlocked hubs – the Caspian for one – are in a similar position. But in reality, producers everywhere are worried their crude won’t be able to find a home.
Third, the world is still awash with supply, which unlike demand is still close to pre-crisis levels. Low prices have killed off new investment but have not yet had much impact on production. So far, we estimate barely one million b/d of onstream non-OPEC production has been shut in.
These are sizeable volumes but, given the scale of the market oversupply, insignificant. We estimate over 15 million b/d of production generates negative operating cash flow, now that prices have lurched lower. As storage fills up, more wells and fields will be shut-in during the coming weeks. Curtailed volumes will quickly mount up.
What must happen for the oil market to start rebalancing and prices to recover? May is important for supply, with OPEC+ cuts taking effect and removing up to 7 million b/d from the market by the end of the month. We expect a slow return to “normal” life in H2 2020 to help demand recover, though most likely staying below pre-crisis levels.
A strong bounce in demand as the world emerges from recession will be needed to soak up the overhang of inventory, which threatens to reach record levels by summer. Nothing, however, can be taken for granted while coronavirus still poses a threat to economic – and social – activity.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 24 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.28 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 132.74 points Monday, down 0.28 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Monday, 23 March 20
CHARTERPARTY REQUIREMENTS TO NOTIFY CLAIMS - TAKE CARE! - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Voyage charterparties frequently require the owner to notify any claim with supporting documents within a relatively shor ...
Monday, 23 March 20
COAL INDIA LIMITED'S ONE-DAY OUTPUT PEAKS AT 3.17 MT - THE HINDU
Coal India Limited (CIL) output peaked at a new high of 3.17 million tonnes (MT) on March 20, overtaking the 3.14 MT production recorded on March 2 ...
Monday, 23 March 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.45 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR JUNE & JULY 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co.,Ltd (KOMIPO), on behalf of five Korean Gencos, has issued an international tender for total 1,450,000 MT (&pl ...
Saturday, 21 March 20
PANAMAX: 82,000DWT SHIP AGREED $4,250 FOR A COAL TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market made some headway this past week despite being buffeted by the global pandemic storm. With the market in a constan ...
|
|
|
Showing 1051 to 1055 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
