We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 29 April 20
OIL CLOSES IN ON PEAK OVERSUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
Are we now deep in the abyss? Up to our necks in it, if the oil price is any guide. Brent has now tested sub-US$20/bbl in this downturn and WTI sub-zero, albeit briefly and in somewhat freakish circumstances. Where are the signs of stress across the oil value chain? And what are the prospects of finding an exit route to recovery? I talked it through with Ann-Louise Hittle of our Macro Oils team.
First, oil demand, which we think may be close to bottoming out. Decline has been sharp and deep as Covid-19 takes its toll on global economic activity. Much of the world is currently in lockdown, with more than 65% of the world’s population under travel restrictions. Global air travel and car use have nosedived in many countries. The big hit has been on jet fuel demand (down 50% year-on-year) and gasoline (down 25%). Diesel and fuel oil – used to transport goods by truck, ship and rail – have held relatively steady.
The net effect will be April’s demand falling by an average of 15 million to 18 million b/d year on year, based on the early April forecast from our Macro Oils Service. It’s a big number but may be bigger still on certain days or weeks in April and May. Some estimates have suggested declines of 20 million b/d or more.
A key question is when the global economic recovery that’s needed to kick start oil demand growth again will begin. Right now, we appear to be in limbo. India, France and the UK, among other big economies, have extended lockdowns into May. Italy, Spain, Austria and others have started to ease restrictions while several US states are considering re-opening in May. There are early signs of US gasoline demand stabilising.
China though is the model to watch as it emerges from lockdown. It has already started ratcheting up crude purchases in April to supply a reviving economy.
Second, inventory is building at superfast rates globally. Cushing, Oklahoma, is a microcosm of the wider picture. Oil prices in Texas have incentivised producers to send crude to the Cushing hub; weak demand from refineries in the Mid-West and Gulf Coast have kept it there. Storage tanks are filling up rapidly – the three largest weekly builds on record were in consecutive weeks from late March, based on Genscape’s proprietary twice-weekly tank monitoring.
Cushing’s tightening storage capacity played a central role in WTI’s ignominious dive into negative prices on 20 April, ahead of the May contract expiry. Traders and financial players were effectively ambushed – having to pay counterparties up to US$37/bbl to roll out of their expiring May contracts and into June.
Storage globally will stay tight so long as oversupply persists. Genscape estimates Cushing‘s spare capacity of up to 15 million b/d will be full within weeks, and other landlocked hubs – the Caspian for one – are in a similar position. But in reality, producers everywhere are worried their crude won’t be able to find a home.
Third, the world is still awash with supply, which unlike demand is still close to pre-crisis levels. Low prices have killed off new investment but have not yet had much impact on production. So far, we estimate barely one million b/d of onstream non-OPEC production has been shut in.
These are sizeable volumes but, given the scale of the market oversupply, insignificant. We estimate over 15 million b/d of production generates negative operating cash flow, now that prices have lurched lower. As storage fills up, more wells and fields will be shut-in during the coming weeks. Curtailed volumes will quickly mount up.
What must happen for the oil market to start rebalancing and prices to recover? May is important for supply, with OPEC+ cuts taking effect and removing up to 7 million b/d from the market by the end of the month. We expect a slow return to “normal” life in H2 2020 to help demand recover, though most likely staying below pre-crisis levels.
A strong bounce in demand as the world emerges from recession will be needed to soak up the overhang of inventory, which threatens to reach record levels by summer. Nothing, however, can be taken for granted while coronavirus still poses a threat to economic – and social – activity.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing chal ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
INDONESIA TO CANCEL RULES REQUIRING DOMESTIC SHIPS FOR COAL, PALM EXPORTS : REFINITIV
Indonesia's government will revoke rules requiring exporters of coal and palm oil to use domestic shipping companies for shipments, Coordinatin ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
JAN-FEB 2020, INDONESIA SHIPPED 64.5 MLN TONNES OF COAL, UP +3.4% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of calendar 2019, Indonesia exported 386.4 mln tonnes of coal, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv. This represents a ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
As countries around the world struggle to take back control of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic the global economy shuts down bit by bit, leaving only ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
THE TRIPLE SHOCK OF CORONAVIRUS IN SHIPPING: WILL IT LAST? - DREWRY
Transport capacity shortages, disruptions to supply chains and inability to plan since late January have been a dangerous combination. But will all ...
|
|
|
Showing 1046 to 1050 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
