We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 29 April 20
OIL CLOSES IN ON PEAK OVERSUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
Are we now deep in the abyss? Up to our necks in it, if the oil price is any guide. Brent has now tested sub-US$20/bbl in this downturn and WTI sub-zero, albeit briefly and in somewhat freakish circumstances. Where are the signs of stress across the oil value chain? And what are the prospects of finding an exit route to recovery? I talked it through with Ann-Louise Hittle of our Macro Oils team.
First, oil demand, which we think may be close to bottoming out. Decline has been sharp and deep as Covid-19 takes its toll on global economic activity. Much of the world is currently in lockdown, with more than 65% of the world’s population under travel restrictions. Global air travel and car use have nosedived in many countries. The big hit has been on jet fuel demand (down 50% year-on-year) and gasoline (down 25%). Diesel and fuel oil – used to transport goods by truck, ship and rail – have held relatively steady.
The net effect will be April’s demand falling by an average of 15 million to 18 million b/d year on year, based on the early April forecast from our Macro Oils Service. It’s a big number but may be bigger still on certain days or weeks in April and May. Some estimates have suggested declines of 20 million b/d or more.
A key question is when the global economic recovery that’s needed to kick start oil demand growth again will begin. Right now, we appear to be in limbo. India, France and the UK, among other big economies, have extended lockdowns into May. Italy, Spain, Austria and others have started to ease restrictions while several US states are considering re-opening in May. There are early signs of US gasoline demand stabilising.
China though is the model to watch as it emerges from lockdown. It has already started ratcheting up crude purchases in April to supply a reviving economy.
Second, inventory is building at superfast rates globally. Cushing, Oklahoma, is a microcosm of the wider picture. Oil prices in Texas have incentivised producers to send crude to the Cushing hub; weak demand from refineries in the Mid-West and Gulf Coast have kept it there. Storage tanks are filling up rapidly – the three largest weekly builds on record were in consecutive weeks from late March, based on Genscape’s proprietary twice-weekly tank monitoring.
Cushing’s tightening storage capacity played a central role in WTI’s ignominious dive into negative prices on 20 April, ahead of the May contract expiry. Traders and financial players were effectively ambushed – having to pay counterparties up to US$37/bbl to roll out of their expiring May contracts and into June.
Storage globally will stay tight so long as oversupply persists. Genscape estimates Cushing‘s spare capacity of up to 15 million b/d will be full within weeks, and other landlocked hubs – the Caspian for one – are in a similar position. But in reality, producers everywhere are worried their crude won’t be able to find a home.
Third, the world is still awash with supply, which unlike demand is still close to pre-crisis levels. Low prices have killed off new investment but have not yet had much impact on production. So far, we estimate barely one million b/d of onstream non-OPEC production has been shut in.
These are sizeable volumes but, given the scale of the market oversupply, insignificant. We estimate over 15 million b/d of production generates negative operating cash flow, now that prices have lurched lower. As storage fills up, more wells and fields will be shut-in during the coming weeks. Curtailed volumes will quickly mount up.
What must happen for the oil market to start rebalancing and prices to recover? May is important for supply, with OPEC+ cuts taking effect and removing up to 7 million b/d from the market by the end of the month. We expect a slow return to “normal” life in H2 2020 to help demand recover, though most likely staying below pre-crisis levels.
A strong bounce in demand as the world emerges from recession will be needed to soak up the overhang of inventory, which threatens to reach record levels by summer. Nothing, however, can be taken for granted while coronavirus still poses a threat to economic – and social – activity.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 27 March 20
CHINA'S BULKS: THE SENTIMENT GAP BETWEEN STEEL AND COAL WIDENS - WOOD MACKENZIE
China seems to be containing its local coronavirus situation, with imported cases now posing the greater threat. While quarantine measures remain t ...
Friday, 27 March 20
S.KOREA Q1 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SET FOR 10-YR LOW ON ANTI-POLLUTION MEASURES - REUTERS
South Korea’s first-quarter thermal coal imports are set to fall to a decade-low due to stricter air pollution measures, while the coronaviru ...
Friday, 27 March 20
PORT OF NEWCASTLE OPERATIONS CONTINUE WITH COVID-19 RESPONSE MEASURES IN PLACE
Port of Newcastle, like many organisations, is taking a precautionary approach to help manage COVID-19 risks in the community. Our focus is on ensu ...
Thursday, 26 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
CORONAVIRUS CRISIS IS CRUSHING GLOBAL GDP GROWTH - FITCH RATINGS
The coronavirus crisis is crushing global GDP growth according to Fitch Ratings in its latest quarterly “Global Economic Outlook” (GEO) ...
|
|
|
Showing 1041 to 1045 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
|
| |
| |
|
