We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 29 April 20
OIL CLOSES IN ON PEAK OVERSUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
Are we now deep in the abyss? Up to our necks in it, if the oil price is any guide. Brent has now tested sub-US$20/bbl in this downturn and WTI sub-zero, albeit briefly and in somewhat freakish circumstances. Where are the signs of stress across the oil value chain? And what are the prospects of finding an exit route to recovery? I talked it through with Ann-Louise Hittle of our Macro Oils team.
First, oil demand, which we think may be close to bottoming out. Decline has been sharp and deep as Covid-19 takes its toll on global economic activity. Much of the world is currently in lockdown, with more than 65% of the world’s population under travel restrictions. Global air travel and car use have nosedived in many countries. The big hit has been on jet fuel demand (down 50% year-on-year) and gasoline (down 25%). Diesel and fuel oil – used to transport goods by truck, ship and rail – have held relatively steady.
The net effect will be April’s demand falling by an average of 15 million to 18 million b/d year on year, based on the early April forecast from our Macro Oils Service. It’s a big number but may be bigger still on certain days or weeks in April and May. Some estimates have suggested declines of 20 million b/d or more.
A key question is when the global economic recovery that’s needed to kick start oil demand growth again will begin. Right now, we appear to be in limbo. India, France and the UK, among other big economies, have extended lockdowns into May. Italy, Spain, Austria and others have started to ease restrictions while several US states are considering re-opening in May. There are early signs of US gasoline demand stabilising.
China though is the model to watch as it emerges from lockdown. It has already started ratcheting up crude purchases in April to supply a reviving economy.
Second, inventory is building at superfast rates globally. Cushing, Oklahoma, is a microcosm of the wider picture. Oil prices in Texas have incentivised producers to send crude to the Cushing hub; weak demand from refineries in the Mid-West and Gulf Coast have kept it there. Storage tanks are filling up rapidly – the three largest weekly builds on record were in consecutive weeks from late March, based on Genscape’s proprietary twice-weekly tank monitoring.
Cushing’s tightening storage capacity played a central role in WTI’s ignominious dive into negative prices on 20 April, ahead of the May contract expiry. Traders and financial players were effectively ambushed – having to pay counterparties up to US$37/bbl to roll out of their expiring May contracts and into June.
Storage globally will stay tight so long as oversupply persists. Genscape estimates Cushing‘s spare capacity of up to 15 million b/d will be full within weeks, and other landlocked hubs – the Caspian for one – are in a similar position. But in reality, producers everywhere are worried their crude won’t be able to find a home.
Third, the world is still awash with supply, which unlike demand is still close to pre-crisis levels. Low prices have killed off new investment but have not yet had much impact on production. So far, we estimate barely one million b/d of onstream non-OPEC production has been shut in.
These are sizeable volumes but, given the scale of the market oversupply, insignificant. We estimate over 15 million b/d of production generates negative operating cash flow, now that prices have lurched lower. As storage fills up, more wells and fields will be shut-in during the coming weeks. Curtailed volumes will quickly mount up.
What must happen for the oil market to start rebalancing and prices to recover? May is important for supply, with OPEC+ cuts taking effect and removing up to 7 million b/d from the market by the end of the month. We expect a slow return to “normal” life in H2 2020 to help demand recover, though most likely staying below pre-crisis levels.
A strong bounce in demand as the world emerges from recession will be needed to soak up the overhang of inventory, which threatens to reach record levels by summer. Nothing, however, can be taken for granted while coronavirus still poses a threat to economic – and social – activity.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 20 March 20
VOLATILITY TO INCREASE IN TANKER MARKET FOLLOWING OIL PRICE WAR - DREWRY
Crude oil prices plunged by more than a third in the past week after OPEC+ failed to agree on production cut as demand softened in the aftermath of ...
Friday, 20 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Friday, 20 March 20
OIL PRICES COULD FALL BELOW ZERO: ANALYST - FOX BUSINESS
Plunging oil prices could be headed a lot lower – possibly below zero, according to one Wall Street analyst.
West Texas Interm ...
Friday, 20 March 20
84% OF FEBRUARY BUNKER SALES IN SINGAPORE ARE LOW-SULPHUR FUELS - BIMCO
Low-sulphur fuels accounted for 84% of total February sales in Singapore, slightly up from 83% in January. The sale of low-sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd ...
|
|
|
Showing 1056 to 1060 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
|
| |
| |
|
