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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 30 March 19
KOEN INVITES BIDS FOR 450,000 TONS OF (SUB) BITUMINOUS COAL FOR H1 AND JUNE 2019
South Korea state-owned utility KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) issued a tender for total 450,000 MT of min. 4300, 3500 and 5600 NCV ...
Wednesday, 27 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Contrary to the December 2018 forecasts but in line with the expectations of the dry bulk market, the first quarter of the year closed negatively. ...
Saturday, 23 March 19
IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE HANDY SIZE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The big ships endured heavy losses last week extinguishing any hopes from the recent minor rally. Negative sentiment gained pace throu ...
Friday, 22 March 19
CHINA MARKET: COAL OUT IN THE COLD - BUSINESS RECORDER
Though China maintains there is no ban, China-bound Australian coal shipments are looking for a new home. For the past few months, coal cargoes are ...
Thursday, 21 March 19
PRICE PLUNGE AS CHINESE LEAVE THERMAL COAL OUT IN THE COLD - AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Thermal coal exporter New Hope Corporation says China’s shipment squeeze on Australia is putting downward pressure on prices in all markets i ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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