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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 08 April 19
SULPHUR 2020 - COUNTDOWN TO THE SWITCHOVER - LLOYD'S REGISTER
Sulphur 2020 (MARPOL Annex VI Reg. 14.1.3) is still dominating headlines and as we draw closer to the 1 January 2020 deadline it’s clear that ...
Monday, 08 April 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PRICE PLUMMETS TO LOW NOT SEEN SINCE AUGUST 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
SHIP PASSAGE PLANS - NO ROOM FOR ERROR! - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The English High Court’s judgment in Alize 1954 v Allianz Elementar Versicherungs AG (The CMA CGM Libra) is an impo ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
IMO 2020: READY OR NOT? - WOOD MACKENZIE
New Year’s Day 2020 is firmly marked in the calendar as the refining and shipping industries prepare for change.
The International Marit ...
Saturday, 06 April 19
AUSTRALIA COAL POSTS BIGGEST WEEKLY DROP IN A DECADE AMID WEAK DEMAND - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices this week registered their biggest weekly fall since the financial market turmoil of a decade ago as demand plunged ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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