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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 10 April 19
CHINA'S GROWING THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO PRESSURE EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Growing Chinese thermal coal supply is likely to lead to further tightening of import controls by the government, putting pressure on seaborne coal ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The tragedy in Brazil’s Vale Brumadinho where a tailings dam collapsed in January ranks among the world’s worst mining disasters. It co ...
Monday, 08 April 19
5TH INDIA NUCLEAR NEW BUILD CONGRESS 2019
5th India Nuclear New Build Congress 2019
The congress in Mumbai aims to bring together representatives from governments, regulators ...
Monday, 08 April 19
THERMAL COAL PRICES FALL, INDIAN POWER PLANTS TO SEE LIMITED GAINS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Thermal coal prices are on a downward spiral globally. Australian coal prices have fallen nearly 20 per cent in the past week, and 40 per cent from ...
Monday, 08 April 19
CHEAP COAL SWELLS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA, FOILING GLOBAL GREEN PUSH - NIKKEI
Southeast Asian countries are turning to low-cost coal to satisfy their surging electricity demand as the West shies away from the fossil fuel unde ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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