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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 06 April 19
SUPRAMAX: IT WAS A POOR WEEK OVERALL FOR THE BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX, WHICH LOST GROUND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market over the past week looked to have found a floor on Tuesday with the BCI 5TC at $3460 before firming into the rest ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
OVERSUPPLY STILL MAJOR CHALLENGE WARNS ICS
Speaking in Istanbul, Simon Bennett, Deputy Secretary General of the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) warned that avoiding overcapacity and ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
GLENCORE, TOHOKU ELECTRIC SET COAL CONTRACT PRICE AT $94.75/T - SOURCE, REUTERS REPORTED
Global miner Glencore and Japan’s Tohoku Electric Power agreed on a price of $94.75 per tonne for supplies of thermal coal from Australia for ...
Monday, 01 April 19
FORCE MAJEURE SUCCESS NOT A SEA CHANGE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
It is difficult to successfully argue that contractual performance has been prevented or delayed by force majeure. This i ...
Monday, 01 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL AT RISK FROM CHINA MOVE, WARNS GOVERNMENT REPORT - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
A new government report warns China’s restrictions on coal imports is the number one risk for Australian coal this year and could lead to a s ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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