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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 17 April 19
LNG WESTERN AFRICA CONFERENCE 2019
The only LNG Focus Platform to Accelerate Investment and Cooperation in Western African Countries
LNG Western Africa Conference 2019 ...
Saturday, 13 April 19
IMO 2020 - DON'T SCRUB IT! - IVAR MYKLEBUST
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Höegh Autoliners stands firm on its decision not to implement scrubbers but comply with the IMO 2020 regulations by ...
Saturday, 13 April 19
CAPESIZE: WEST AUSTRALIA TO CHINA IRON ORE CARGOES LIFTING FROM $4.60 PMT TO ABOVE $5.00 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market saw a steep ascent from the depths of last week. The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) 5TC opened on Monday at $5,099, although b ...
Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effecti ...
Friday, 12 April 19
OFFSHORE MENA CONGRESS 2019
Offshore MENA Congress 2019
Event Date : 11-12th Jun. 2019
Location : Cairo, Egypt
Offshore MENA Congress 2019 Offshor ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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