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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 24 April 19
PANAMAX: IN THE EAST, THE MARKET MOVED SIDE-WAYS, WITH FEWER COAL CARGOES FROM INDONESIA PUTTING PRESSURE ON RATES - INTERMODAL
Sentiment in the Dry Bulk market slowly but steadily kept improving last week as Capesize rates remained in recovery mode and Panamax earnings also ...
Wednesday, 24 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - IS THIS A BANKERS' MARKET? - INTERMODAL
Over the last 10 years, many of the traditional and top lending banks have made the decision to either downsize their portfolios or even exit shipp ...
Monday, 22 April 19
COAL INDIA TO ASK POWER PLANTS TO CUT COAL IMPORTS - DNA
Co to encourage import substitution with domestic supplies at power plants
Surge in coal imports has now forced Coal India Ltd (CIL) ...
Thursday, 18 April 19
BIMCO SEES HARD TIMES AHEAD FOR CAPESIZES
China’s increased use of scrap metal for its production of crude steel is fundamentally critical to the dry bulk shipping industry. Mostly Ca ...
Wednesday, 17 April 19
ONCE AGAIN WE FACED WITH THE SITUATION OF THE DRY BALTIC INDEX BEING BELOW 1,000 POINTS - INTERMODAL
Once again we are faced with the situation of the Dry Baltic Index being below 1,000 points. In a market where the feeling of insecurity is almost ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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