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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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