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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 08 March 19
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 2.6 MILLION TONS OF AUSTRALIAN 5700 NAR COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 MT of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origin to be burnt ...
Friday, 08 March 19
CHINA'S COAL DEMAND FORECAST TO DROP SLOWLY - YONHAP
China’s coal demand is expected to fall at a snail’s pace over the next 20 years due to the country’s preference for the cheap fo ...
Thursday, 07 March 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TO LOWEST IN SEVEN MONTHS
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 80,000 MT OF 3800 NCV COAL FOR 21 - 30 MARCH, 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 80,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calor ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITES BIDS FOR 980,000 MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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