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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 06 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
In a downward moving market, softer SnP activity is usually a given, as the gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas widens, especially w ...
Saturday, 02 March 19
A 60,500-TONNER WAS BOOKED DELIVERY SINGAPORE, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Vale’s ongoing absence from the Brazil spot market continued to have a negative impact on sentiment, with rates falling in all a ...
Thursday, 28 February 19
COAL'S PERFECT STORM HITS $70 BILLION AUSTRALIAN PROJECTS - BLOOMBERG
It’s been a tough few weeks for our coal industry.
First there was a court ruling blocking a new mine on climate change ground ...
Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of ...
Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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