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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 17 March 20
IT IS NOW UNQUESTIONABLE THAT 2020 WILL BE A MILESTONE YEAR FOR THE OIL MARKET, AS WELL AS THE WHOLE GLOBAL ECONOMY - ALLIED
It is now unquestionable that 2020 will be a milestone year for the oil market, as well as the whole global economy. The impact from the COVID-19 o ...
Tuesday, 17 March 20
PRELIMINARY FIELD EXPERIENCES ON THE EFFECTS OF LSFO AND VLSFO ON CYLINDER CONDITION - HANS JENSEN LUBRICATORS
It is now more than two months since the 0.5% sulphur cap entered into force, which have affected the operation of more than 70,000 vessels. As ant ...
Monday, 16 March 20
ULTRAMAX: S8 INDONESIA-INDIA AND S10 INDONESIA-CHINA ROUTES BOTH POSTED GAINS OF $1,412, AND $1,289 ON THE WEEK, TO CLOSE AT $5,575, AND $6,089 RESPECTIVELY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market came to work on Monday, with little expectation, or confidence, that the days ahead were going to bring anything o ...
Sunday, 15 March 20
CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT RISES 19% IN APRIL-FEBRUARY - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal production from captive mines in the first eleven months of the ongoing fiscal have increased by 18.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 51.7 million to ...
Friday, 13 March 20
PANAMAX: SLIGHTLY STRONGER NUMBERS IN BOTH BASINS THIS WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Still very sad times for the big ships, and merit in further trading at present levels is highly debatable for most tonnage. Spot fixtures ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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