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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 19 March 20
BIMCO REVISES 2020 FORECAST FOR MAIN SHIPPING MARKETS
The coronavirus pandemic is impacting global shipping demand for 2020 negatively. The speed of the virus spread makes it difficult to assess the fu ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINED IN 2019 - EIA
In 2019, U.S. coal exports declined to 93 million short tons (MMst), a 20% decrease from the previous year, according to the U.S. Energy Informatio ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
SOUTH KOREA'S KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR MIN 3,700 OR MIN 4,200 NCV LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), has issued an international tender for total 160,000 MT (±10%) (80,000 x 2 Panamax) of ...
Wednesday, 18 March 20
DRY BULK: INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES PROVIDING A BIG BOOST IN THE EAST WHERE SENTIMENT FOR HANDIES ALSO STARTED IMPROVING - INTERMODAL
The BDI ended last week with small gains on the back of an encouraging number of cargoes out of key trading regions that helped sustain the reserve ...
Wednesday, 18 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Despite we all knew about the Covid-19 weeks ago, few could realize the size of the thread until the last few days. The examples of China and Italy ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- PTC India Limited - India
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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