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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 20 March 20
VOLATILITY TO INCREASE IN TANKER MARKET FOLLOWING OIL PRICE WAR - DREWRY
Crude oil prices plunged by more than a third in the past week after OPEC+ failed to agree on production cut as demand softened in the aftermath of ...
Friday, 20 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Friday, 20 March 20
OIL PRICES COULD FALL BELOW ZERO: ANALYST - FOX BUSINESS
Plunging oil prices could be headed a lot lower – possibly below zero, according to one Wall Street analyst.
West Texas Interm ...
Friday, 20 March 20
84% OF FEBRUARY BUNKER SALES IN SINGAPORE ARE LOW-SULPHUR FUELS - BIMCO
Low-sulphur fuels accounted for 84% of total February sales in Singapore, slightly up from 83% in January. The sale of low-sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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