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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing chal ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
INDONESIA TO CANCEL RULES REQUIRING DOMESTIC SHIPS FOR COAL, PALM EXPORTS : REFINITIV
Indonesia's government will revoke rules requiring exporters of coal and palm oil to use domestic shipping companies for shipments, Coordinatin ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
JAN-FEB 2020, INDONESIA SHIPPED 64.5 MLN TONNES OF COAL, UP +3.4% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of calendar 2019, Indonesia exported 386.4 mln tonnes of coal, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv. This represents a ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
As countries around the world struggle to take back control of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic the global economy shuts down bit by bit, leaving only ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
THE TRIPLE SHOCK OF CORONAVIRUS IN SHIPPING: WILL IT LAST? - DREWRY
Transport capacity shortages, disruptions to supply chains and inability to plan since late January have been a dangerous combination. But will all ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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