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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 27 March 20
CHINA'S BULKS: THE SENTIMENT GAP BETWEEN STEEL AND COAL WIDENS - WOOD MACKENZIE
China seems to be containing its local coronavirus situation, with imported cases now posing the greater threat. While quarantine measures remain t ...
Friday, 27 March 20
S.KOREA Q1 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SET FOR 10-YR LOW ON ANTI-POLLUTION MEASURES - REUTERS
South Korea’s first-quarter thermal coal imports are set to fall to a decade-low due to stricter air pollution measures, while the coronaviru ...
Friday, 27 March 20
PORT OF NEWCASTLE OPERATIONS CONTINUE WITH COVID-19 RESPONSE MEASURES IN PLACE
Port of Newcastle, like many organisations, is taking a precautionary approach to help manage COVID-19 risks in the community. Our focus is on ensu ...
Thursday, 26 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
CORONAVIRUS CRISIS IS CRUSHING GLOBAL GDP GROWTH - FITCH RATINGS
The coronavirus crisis is crushing global GDP growth according to Fitch Ratings in its latest quarterly “Global Economic Outlook” (GEO) ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
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