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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 01 April 20
TRADERS SCRAMBLE TO SELL CHEAP CRUDE CARGOES AS GLUT GROWS - REUTERS
Oil traders across the globe are offering cargoes far in advance as rapidly vanishing demand drives key physical crude prices to multi-decade lows, ...
Wednesday, 01 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
There is an old, allegedly Chinese, saying suggesting that living in “interesting” times usually refers to times of trouble. The latest ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
FREIGHT MARKET: DRY BULKERS - SPOT MARKET 23-29 MARCH 2020
Capesize
The rebound in freight rates resumed this past week, with rates man-aging to post further gains by week’s end. The BCI is in negat ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
DRY BULK: Q1 HAS BEEN THE WORST QUARTER NOTED FOR MORE THAN 3 YEARS NOW - ALLIED RESEARCH
At this point, the Covid-19 pandemic seems to be monopolizing all market (as well as all other) discussions across the world and any market insight ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.43 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 132.17 points Monday, down 0.43 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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