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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 01 April 20
TRADERS SCRAMBLE TO SELL CHEAP CRUDE CARGOES AS GLUT GROWS - REUTERS
Oil traders across the globe are offering cargoes far in advance as rapidly vanishing demand drives key physical crude prices to multi-decade lows, ...
Wednesday, 01 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
There is an old, allegedly Chinese, saying suggesting that living in “interesting” times usually refers to times of trouble. The latest ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
FREIGHT MARKET: DRY BULKERS - SPOT MARKET 23-29 MARCH 2020
Capesize
The rebound in freight rates resumed this past week, with rates man-aging to post further gains by week’s end. The BCI is in negat ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
DRY BULK: Q1 HAS BEEN THE WORST QUARTER NOTED FOR MORE THAN 3 YEARS NOW - ALLIED RESEARCH
At this point, the Covid-19 pandemic seems to be monopolizing all market (as well as all other) discussions across the world and any market insight ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.43 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 132.17 points Monday, down 0.43 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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