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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 31 March 20
COAL POWER REMAINS IN GLOBAL DECLINE, DESPITE CHINESE SURGE - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
The impact of coronavirus has prompted a surge in coal-fired power plant construction permits in China, with the Chinese government issuing more pe ...
Monday, 30 March 20
CORONAVIRUS - IMPLICATIONS FOR SHIPS AND CREW - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Countries around the world are strengthening their border control measures in order to prevent the further spread of COVI ...
Monday, 30 March 20
LAY-UP AND RE-ACTIVATION REVISITED - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the maritime industry in previously unthinkable ways. Ports around the world are denyi ...
Monday, 30 March 20
PANAMAX: INDONESIA LACKED VOLUME, PARTLY DUE TO FORCE MAJEURE IN INDIAN PORTS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
As Covid-19 continued to ratchet up tensions across the globe, the Cape market dealt with the change to remote working. Most regions o ...
Saturday, 28 March 20
ASIA'S COAL MARKETS DIVERGE ON QUALITY LINES AS CORONAVIRUS HITS INDIA - REUTERS
Asia’s seaborne coal market is increasingly diverging between higher-quality Australian coal, where prices are holding up despite the economi ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
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