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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 11 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 4th of September the Baltic Dry Index marked its highest level for 2019, reaching 2,518 points, while the rest of the dry indices also recor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS
It might be already overstated, but it seems to be important to point out once again how peculiar the current circumstances are.
Before the st ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
EIA FORECASTS U.S ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR DEMAND FOR COAL WILL FALL BY 81 MMST (15%) IN 2020
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019. According to EIA's Shor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: DEMAND DOWNGRADES FOR BULK COMMODITIES - WOOD MACKENZIE
The coronavirus outbreak is a rapidly evolving news story – and a real wildcard for bulks demand. Our global experts are monitoring the impac ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE ENSURES ENERGY SUPPLY AMID EPIDEMIC - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has seen more than 500 coal mines resume production in February, which ensured energy supply amid the ou ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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