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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 09 March 20
OPEC+ 'NO DEAL' A BLOW TO THE MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
Speaking after today’s OPEC+ meeting broke up, Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Today’s o ...
Monday, 09 March 20
KOREA EAST-WEST POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 150,000 MT OF MIN 4,400 - MAX 5,499 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: KOREA EAST-WEST POWER CO. LTD. of South Korea has issued an international tender for total 150,000 MT of LCV coal for May – Jun ...
Sunday, 08 March 20
SUPRAMAX: A 55,000DWT VESSEL FIXING DELIVERY FROM EAST KALIMANTAN FOR A TRIP TO VIETNAM AT $9,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
SUPRAMAX/ULTRAMAX - A 56,000DWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY EAST COAST INDIA, IN THE $6,000S
SUPRAMAX/U ...
Friday, 06 March 20
CHINA RESUMES 83.4 PCT COAL PRODUCTION CAPACITY AMID EPIDEMIC - XINHUA
China has resumed 83.4 percent of its coal production capacity amid the fight against the novel coronavirus outbreak, the National Energy Administr ...
Friday, 06 March 20
COLOMBIAN COAL OUTPUT FELL 2% IN 2019 - REUTERS
Coal production in Colombia, the fifth-largest coal exporter in the world, fell 2% to 82.2 million tonnes in 2019 after output at one of the princi ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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