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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 24 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The World Bank estimates that the global economy will fall by 5.2% this year, underlining that the Covid-19 pandemic has had rapid and massive cons ...
Tuesday, 23 June 20
COVID-19 COULD CAUSE A BOOM IN COAL POWER - RYSTAD ENERGY | OILPRICE
COVID-19 has not only impacted the energy industry’s revenues but also its infrastructure development.
The delay of new natural gas ...
Tuesday, 23 June 20
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 0.9 PCT IN JANUARY-MAY: XINHUA
Output of raw coal in China rose 0.9 percent year on year to 1.47 billion tonnes in the first five months of this year, official data showed.
& ...
Monday, 22 June 20
KAMSARMAX TYPES REGULARLY HIT THE $9,000 PER DAY LEVEL FOR INDONESIAN COAL RUN TO CHINA, BALTIC BRIEFING SAYS
Capesize
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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals im ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- The University of Queensland
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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