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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 01 July 20
COLOMBIA'S COAL EXPORT VOLUMES HAVE STEADILY DECLINED IN RECENT YEARS - BANCHERO COSTA
Colombia is the world’s fifth largest seaborne exporter of coal, coming after Australia, Indonesia, Russia and the USA.
Export ...
Wednesday, 01 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It was beginning of 2020 – close to 6 months from now – when we first experienced the huge impact of the COVID 19 outbreak on Ship Repa ...
Monday, 29 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL AT THE MERCY OF THE DRAGON AND TIGER - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
Coal sector analysts have been busy in recent months mapping the negative impact of low coal prices from the COVID-19 pandemic on Indonesian coal c ...
Monday, 29 June 20
FALLING DEMAND IN CHINA AND INDIA SIGNAL TOUGH TIMES AHEAD FOR INDONESIAN EXPORTS - GHEE PEH | EEFA
Assessing the Impact on Indonesian Coal Companies
The bad news for Indonesia’s coal companies is that they are likely to have ...
Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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