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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 10 July 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 10 July 20
GLOBAL SHIPPING EARNINGS FORECAST CUT AS SUPPLY SET TO OUTSTRIP DEMAND - MOODY'S
EBITDA forecast worsens, keeping outlook negative. We now expect the aggregate EBITDA of rated shipping companies to fall by around 16%-18% in 2020 ...
Friday, 10 July 20
SLOW RECOVERY IN TANKER RATES TO WEIGH ON BUANA LINTAS LAUTAN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings believes that international tanker rates are likely improve after their sharp fall since May 2020, albeit at a slow pace. The weaknes ...
Wednesday, 08 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the previous month, the dry bulk market witnessed an impressive increase in the BDI index that has reached 1800 points from 500 with a clear ...
Tuesday, 07 July 20
COAL INDIA WORKERS STRIKE CUTS OUTPUT BY 56%: OFFICIAL - REUTERS
A strike at Coal India Ltd cut production by 56% in the three days ending July 4 as workers oppose opening up coal mining to the private sector, a ...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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