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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 20 July 20
COAL INDIA LAUNCHES SPECIAL CATEGORY OF E-AUCTION FOR COAL IMPORTERS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) on Friday launched a special category of e-auction for importers of coal. This is in line with the government’s declaration ...
Monday, 20 July 20
OIL PRICE OF $40-43 PER BARREL MORE OR LESS BALANCED - NOVAK | TASS
The Russian Ministry of Energy considers the current oil price of $40-43 per barrel more or less balanced and does not expect price changes after t ...
Monday, 20 July 20
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000 OPEN NORTH CHINA FIXING AN AUSTRALIAN ROUND IN THE LOW $10,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The capesize market showed some resistance this week to recent losses as all routes saw a small uptick in value to end the week. With ...
Friday, 17 July 20
MISC MALAYSIA ENTERS INTO PURCHASE AGREEMENTS AND TIME CHARTER PARTIES FOR SIX VLECS
MISC Berhad (MISC) has entered into Memorandum of Agreements (MOAs) with six indirect wholly-owned subsidiaries of Zhejiang Satellite Petrochem ...
Wednesday, 15 July 20
HOW MEANINGFUL ARE SOME ESTIMATES FOR INDIA’S COAL CONSUMPTION DATA? - IEEFA
In recent years, BP's estimates for India have contained what appears to be a record of over-optimistic projections
BP’s a ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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