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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 31 July 20
BOTSWANA PLANS MORE COAL-FIRED POWER AS AFRICAN SOLAR ACCELERATES - IEEFA
An African economic leader like Botswana should embrace solar to reduce subsidies and tariff hikes
As Sub-Saharan solar ambition has ...
Wednesday, 29 July 20
2019 U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FALLS TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1978 - EIA
In 2019, U.S. coal production totaled 706 million short tons (MMst), a 7% decrease from the 756 MMst mined in 2018. Last year’s production wa ...
Wednesday, 29 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The dry bulk sector is beginning to recover from reduced SnP activity recorded in the first quarter of 2020. The table below illustrates that appro ...
Tuesday, 28 July 20
DEUTSCHE BANK TO END GLOBAL BUSINESS ACTIVITIES IN COAL MINING BY 2025 - REUTERS
Deutsche Bank, in a revamp of its policies for fossil fuels, said on Monday that it would end business activities worldwide related to coal mining ...
Monday, 27 July 20
IEEFA ENERGY FINANCE CONFERENCE 2020: COAL, LNG, PETROCHEMICAL SECTORS FACE POOR OUTLOOK AND UPHILL BATTLE FOR INVESTORS
Fossil fuel industries were becoming less financially attractive even before the global coronavirus pandemic
Three major fossil fuel ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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