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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 01 August 20
SHIP SHAPE - OUCH: FIS
Thursday afternoon saw a report that US GDP in Q2 shrank by 32.9%. Now this may have beaten expectations, but it’s a bit like saying that you ...
Saturday, 01 August 20
ASIA HOPE FOR LONG-TERM OIL DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Oil demand in Asia Pacific might be expected to plunge 1.8m barrels per day (bpd) this year, but there are still strong prospects for growth over t ...
Friday, 31 July 20
SHORT-TERM IMPACT ON THE CHEMICAL SHIPPING MARKET IF THE INDIA-CHINA DISPUTE ESCALATES - DREWRY
Due to the India-China dispute, the threat of deteriorating trade relations between the two countries has become real. Meanwhile, we expect freight ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANAMAX: THE PERIOD MARKET REMAINS QUIET WITH FEW FIXTURES REPORTED - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
After weeks of dropping rates, there are finally some resistance for the Capes. Pacific rounds improving to upper15,000s by the middle ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANDEMIC SENDING SOUTH AFRICAN COAL INDUSTRY TO EARLIER GRAVE - IEEFA
Could South Africa’s coal export industry, one of the largest in the world, be about to take a severe hit from the coronavirus?
...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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