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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 05 August 20
SLUMP IN OIL REVENUE CHALLENGES MIDDLE EAST OIL EXPORTERS - INTERMODAL
The Covid-19 pandemic has had far-reaching consequences on the global capital markets. Despite the US government’s efforts for a quick and de ...
Tuesday, 04 August 20
KOEN INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 900K MT OF MIN 5600 NCV COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 260,000 to 300,000 Tons (MT) min. ...
Tuesday, 04 August 20
THE WORLD’S FLEET OF COAL-FIRED POWER STATIONS HAS GOT SMALLER FOR THE FIRST TIME ON RECORD, WITH MORE CAPACITY RETIRED IN THE FIRST HALF OF 2020 THAN THE AMOUNT OPENED - IEA
This is according to the latest Global Coal Plant Tracker (GCPT) results by Global Energy Monitor (GEM), which we completed last month and report f ...
Monday, 03 August 20
U.S. COAL CONSUMPTION, WHICH HAS DECLINED SINCE ITS 2007 PEAK, FELL TO ITS LOWEST POINT IN APRIL 2020 - EIA
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) most recent Monthly Energy Review, the United States consumed 6.5 quadrillion ...
Monday, 03 August 20
LOW OIL PRICE AND CORONA VIRUS HIT SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA OIL PRODUCERS - FITCH RATINGS
The collapse in oil prices and the coronavirus shock is worsening the fiscal and external balances of sub-Saharan African oil producers, Fitch Rati ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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