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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 07 August 20
PEABODY'S $1.42 BILLION WRITE-DOWN CONCEDES COAL MINES HAVE LITTLE VALUE AND DIM FUTURE - IEEFA
Trouble at biggest mine in Powder River Basin speaks volumes about state of industry
Peabody Energy, the world’s largest priva ...
Thursday, 06 August 20
SUPRAMAX MARKET CONTINUED SIDEWAYS TREND, AND LITTLE INSPIRING NEWS APPEAR - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There is presently a small correction in rates, but overall levels are up from previous week mainly due to increased demand in the Eas ...
Thursday, 06 August 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITING BIDS FOR MIN 3,600-MAX 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) inviting bids for 80,000 Tons (MT) Min 3,600~Max 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal f ...
Wednesday, 05 August 20
NO NEW MINING LICENSES - A REMINDER TO GOVERNORS IN INDONESIA - SSEK
Indonesia’s acting Director General of Mining and Coal (“DGMC”) has issued a letter to the country’s provincial Governors t ...
Wednesday, 05 August 20
AUGUST 2020 HBA HITTING ITS LOWEST LEVELS IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of August plunged 30.73% YoY, hitting its lowest levels in history and highlighting ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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