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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 18 August 20
BLACKBALLED: WILL COAL BOUNCE BACK FROM SLUMP OR IS IT TERMINAL? - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Even by the standards of this miserable year, 2020 has been a shocker for the global coal industry.
As the lockdown kicked in demand ...
Friday, 14 August 20
EIA: COAL PLANTS UNECONOMICAL IN MOST REGIONS - IEEFA
U.S. coal power generation plunged by 30 percent in the first half of 2020 off an already-depressed base, shoved out by natural gas and renewables ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDIA SHOULD RECORD A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS, REACHING A VOLUME OF 167 MILLION TONS BY THE END OF 2020 - ASSOCARBONI
Regarding 2020 thermal coal imports forecasts, Vietnam’s coal imports showed a very strong growth in the first half of 2020 and it is believe ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDONESIA REMAINS THE LARGEST EXPORTER OF COAL IN THE WORLD - ASSOCARBONI
According to the last Assocarboni data for 2019, Indonesia remains the largest exporter in the world. Thermal coal exports have in fact reached 456 ...
Wednesday, 12 August 20
VIETNAM WAS THE PROTAGONIST OF A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN COAL IMPORTS IN 2019 - ASSOCARBONI
The latest Assocarboni data for 2019 also provide a detailed picture on the trend of the global coal import.
According to Assocarbon ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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