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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 15 July 20
CHINA'S JUNE COAL IMPORTS FALL 6.7% Y/Y ON PORT CURBS - REUTERS
China’s coal imports dropped 6.7% in June from the same period last year, as stringent import restrictions at ports impeded purchases by trad ...
Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraint ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.75 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 126.01 points Monday, up 0.75 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
TURKEY - A CASE OF UNDECLARED BUNKER - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Undeclared/excess bunkers can be considered a criminal act by Turkish customs officials with the ship's crew being ac ...
Monday, 13 July 20
PANAMAX: A TUMULTUOUS WEEK IN THE PANAMAX MARKET ENSURED ALL MARKETS GAINED VALUE ON THE WEEK - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week witnessed the dreaded correction in the Capesize market, with the time charter average shedding almost 18 per cent to close ...
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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