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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 29 June 20
CHINA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: MANY MOVING PARTS, FORECAST TO FALL 10% YOY - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
China’s coal demand declined in the first quarter of 2020. According to the China National Coal Association, the country consumed 870mt in th ...
Monday, 29 June 20
ULTRAMAX: A 58,000 FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA EAST COAST INDIA, REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
As the halfway mark of 2020 arrives, the capesize market is making new highs for the year. From persistent lows earlier caused by a ba ...
Saturday, 27 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 26 June 20
WHAT TODAY'S BAILOUTS CAN DO FOR TOMORROW'S ECONOMIES - WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
The COVID-19 crisis provides an opportunity for governments to build fairer, more sustainable and more resilient economies.
Governments a ...
Thursday, 25 June 20
ALL YOU WANT TO KNOW ABOUT COAL MINE AUCTIONS - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Last week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi threw open the auction of 41 coal blocks for commercial mining. The decision, which was part of the announc ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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