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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 29 June 20
CHINA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: MANY MOVING PARTS, FORECAST TO FALL 10% YOY - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
China’s coal demand declined in the first quarter of 2020. According to the China National Coal Association, the country consumed 870mt in th ...
Monday, 29 June 20
ULTRAMAX: A 58,000 FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA EAST COAST INDIA, REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
As the halfway mark of 2020 arrives, the capesize market is making new highs for the year. From persistent lows earlier caused by a ba ...
Saturday, 27 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 26 June 20
WHAT TODAY'S BAILOUTS CAN DO FOR TOMORROW'S ECONOMIES - WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
The COVID-19 crisis provides an opportunity for governments to build fairer, more sustainable and more resilient economies.
Governments a ...
Thursday, 25 June 20
ALL YOU WANT TO KNOW ABOUT COAL MINE AUCTIONS - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Last week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi threw open the auction of 41 coal blocks for commercial mining. The decision, which was part of the announc ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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