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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 17 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
After experiencing record earnings during the first half of the year, the focus of headlines concerning the tanker market has shifted from the deve ...
Wednesday, 17 June 20
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITED 80000 MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR AUGUST 1H, 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 Metric Tons (MT) Min 4,200 kcal/kg - Max. ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
A GLOBAL ECONOMIC SLUMP: WHAT WILL IT MEAN FOR METALS AND MINING? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Back before coronavirus knocked “normal” out cold, the key issues for miners were sub-investment prices, rising requirements for ESG an ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.58 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.43 points Monday, up 0.58 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
HIGHER IRON ORE PRICES OFFSET CORONAVIRUS-DRIVEN PRODUCTION RISK - FITCH RATINGS
Lower iron ore production in Brazil, resulting from rising coronavirus infections, should only marginally affect the cash flow of Vale and other gl ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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