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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 16 June 20
SHALE SHOCKED - WOOD MACKENZIE
Capturing shut-ins in real time
Oil markets are searching for balance as the world reflects on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. ...
Sunday, 14 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL WAS STILL IN DEMAND; A 52,000-DWT SUPRAMAX FIXING DELIVERY CJK FOR A ROUND VOYAGE VIA INDONESIA AT $6,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market made new highs for the year this week after strong iron ore demand to the far east continued to develop in the mar ...
Friday, 12 June 20
CHINA CURBS COAL IMPORTS AFTER 5 MONTHS OF RECORD INFLOWS - SOURCES: REUTERS
China has stepped up customs checks for coal imports, leading to lengthy processing delays at ports, four sources familiar with the matter said, as ...
Friday, 12 June 20
COAL INDIA LIMITED SET FOR MARKETING DRIVE TO CREATE DEMAND - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
State-run miner Coal India (CIL), which is primarily focused on supplying coal to the power sector, is now reorienting its marketing to create dema ...
Friday, 12 June 20
MOODY'S REVISES BRENT OIL PRICE OUTLOOK TO $35/BARREL IN 2020 - TASS
Low oil prices are likely to exert the highest pressure on Iraq, Oman and Kuwait due to the limited space for the fiscal policy pursuit and higher ...
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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