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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 16 June 20
SHALE SHOCKED - WOOD MACKENZIE
Capturing shut-ins in real time
Oil markets are searching for balance as the world reflects on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. ...
Sunday, 14 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL WAS STILL IN DEMAND; A 52,000-DWT SUPRAMAX FIXING DELIVERY CJK FOR A ROUND VOYAGE VIA INDONESIA AT $6,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market made new highs for the year this week after strong iron ore demand to the far east continued to develop in the mar ...
Friday, 12 June 20
CHINA CURBS COAL IMPORTS AFTER 5 MONTHS OF RECORD INFLOWS - SOURCES: REUTERS
China has stepped up customs checks for coal imports, leading to lengthy processing delays at ports, four sources familiar with the matter said, as ...
Friday, 12 June 20
COAL INDIA LIMITED SET FOR MARKETING DRIVE TO CREATE DEMAND - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
State-run miner Coal India (CIL), which is primarily focused on supplying coal to the power sector, is now reorienting its marketing to create dema ...
Friday, 12 June 20
MOODY'S REVISES BRENT OIL PRICE OUTLOOK TO $35/BARREL IN 2020 - TASS
Low oil prices are likely to exert the highest pressure on Iraq, Oman and Kuwait due to the limited space for the fiscal policy pursuit and higher ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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