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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 09 June 20
BUNKER SUPPLY CONTRACTS - KEY CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE BUYER - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Regardless of whether a buyer purchases fuel directly from physical suppliers or via brokers or traders and whether sale ...
Tuesday, 09 June 20
INDIA: COAL IMPORT DROPS BY 20% TO NEARLY 19 MILLION TONNES IN MAY, SAYS REPORT - HINDUSTAN TIMES
The country’s coal import dropped by 20 per cent to 18.93 million tonnes (MT) last month, industry data showed.
The government ...
Monday, 08 June 20
WOOD MACKENZIE: THE INDISPENSABLE OPEC+
Rumours of “the death of OPEC” have been circulating for almost as long as the organisation has existed. Just three years after the car ...
Monday, 08 June 20
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS FALL NEARLY 20% IN MAY EVEN AS DEMAND RISES - REUTERS
China’s coal imports in May fell nearly 20% compared with a year earlier even as demand recovered at power plants and industrial users, custo ...
Monday, 08 June 20
JUNE 2020 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HIT US$ 52.98 A TON, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AT LEAST AUGUST 2016
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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