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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 04 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 04 June 20
DON'T FORGET THE REAL PURPOSE OF RISK ASSESSMENTS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
When doing a risk assessment, we often overcomplicate it and forget its real purpose.
Rather than ensuring that crew ...
Wednesday, 03 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Once again shipping is about to venture into uncharted waters and before the challenges of the past decade are forgotten, shipowners will have to o ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
KOSPO LOOKING FOR 80000 MT OF 4200 NCV COAL FOR JULY
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 Metric Tons (MT) 4200 NCV coal for 12 - 21, July ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL MINER BUMI RESOURCES Q1 OUTPUT UP 5% - REUTERS
Indonesia’s largest coal miner Bumi Resources posted a 5% increase in first-quarter output at 20.8 million tonnes, the company said in a stat ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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