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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 04 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 04 June 20
DON'T FORGET THE REAL PURPOSE OF RISK ASSESSMENTS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
When doing a risk assessment, we often overcomplicate it and forget its real purpose.
Rather than ensuring that crew ...
Wednesday, 03 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Once again shipping is about to venture into uncharted waters and before the challenges of the past decade are forgotten, shipowners will have to o ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
KOSPO LOOKING FOR 80000 MT OF 4200 NCV COAL FOR JULY
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 Metric Tons (MT) 4200 NCV coal for 12 - 21, July ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL MINER BUMI RESOURCES Q1 OUTPUT UP 5% - REUTERS
Indonesia’s largest coal miner Bumi Resources posted a 5% increase in first-quarter output at 20.8 million tonnes, the company said in a stat ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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