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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 06 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 05 November 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES FOR SECOND CONSECUTIVE MONTH
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference rose for a 2nd month by 9.24% month on month. The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
PHILIPPINES COAL MORATORIUM HIGHLIGHTS DRAMATIC PIVOT TO RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT FOR LOWER PRICES AND POWER SYSTEM RESILIENCE - IEEFA
Policymakers and industry leaders ready to embrace new energy technologies
The Department of Energy’s call for a moratorium on ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
FOREIGN INVESTORS FACE TOUGH TIMES CLOSING VIETNAM’S REMAINING COAL POWER DEALS - IEEFA
Project bankability at risk as new regulations threaten usual contractual terms
Foreign investors will face higher-than-usual risks ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared t ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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