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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 27 October 20
PLN STILL REFUSING TO ADAPT, A MOVE WHICH WILL HURT INVESTORS, CONSUMERS, AND THE GOVERNMENT PURSE - IEEFA
Utility’s latest planning report locks PLN into the past
PLN would be better served restructuring its business to address the current en ...
Monday, 26 October 20
'LONG ASCENT' TO RECOVERY OF GLOBAL GROWTH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global economy has so far avoided a “financial catastrophe” but growth projections from the International Monetary Fund’s lat ...
Friday, 23 October 20
SHIPPING LOANS AND COLLATERAL DAMAGE - VICTOR ONYEGBADO, AKABOGU & ASSOCIATES
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Shipping finance transactions are characterised by peculiar risk factors principally on account of the shipping asset&rsq ...
Friday, 23 October 20
WHAT WILL THE 2020 ELECTIONS MEAN FOR US ENERGY? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The 2020 elections present American voters with a choice between two radically different visions for the future of energy. President Donald Trump r ...
Wednesday, 21 October 20
BRAZIL EXPORTED 238.7 MLN TONNES OF IRON ORE IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
Brazil’s iron ore exports have been gradually but steadily recovering following a disastrous winter period of 2019/2020. In the first 9 month ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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