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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 14 October 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RALLY ON REPORTED BAN ON AUSTRALIA CARGOES - REUTERS
Dalian coking coal futures rallied for a sixth straight session on Tuesday after reports surfaced that China had stopped buying coal from Australia ...
Wednesday, 14 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The tanker market has experienced severe freight rate and asset value declines over the past 5 months. A potential market upturn may arise in the c ...
Friday, 09 October 20
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT, BUT RECOVERY IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
India’s coal imports, depressed by the impact of coronavirus this year, regained ground in September, but in an uneven uptick – shipmen ...
Thursday, 08 October 20
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS FROM INDONESIA DECLINED 16.4% Y-O-Y, TO 80.2 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
China's coal imports boomed in 2019, surprising many who had expected the government would clamp down strictly on shipments.
...
Thursday, 08 October 20
GLIMMER OF LIGHT FOR COAL, BUT SHORT TERM - FNARENA
Is coal on the rebound? Demand appears stronger and supply reductions have underpinned a tightening market. Certainly, the Newcastle thermal coal p ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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