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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 07 October 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECREASE BY 26 PERCENT IN 2020 COMPARED TO 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 525 million short tons (MMst), compared with 705 MMst in 2019, a 26% decrease.
COVID-19 a ...
Wednesday, 07 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The challenges brought forward in 2020 proved to be very different from what we could have ever imagined. Together with placing a significant strai ...
Tuesday, 06 October 20
KOSPO TO IMPORT 80,000 MT OF 3,800 NCV COAL FOR 2H NOV
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 MT Min.3800 kcal/kg NCV coal 2H November, 2020 l ...
Friday, 02 October 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISE AFTER HISTORIC CRASH TO US$ 49.42
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of October Rise to US$ 51.00 after historic crash to US$ 49.42 in September 2020.
...
Friday, 02 October 20
SRI LANKA MUST LEARN LESSONS FROM AROUND ASIA TO AVOID FURTHER ELECTRICITY CRISES - IEEFA
Overcommitment to fossil-fuelled power generation is leading to excess capacity and rising capacity payments, subsidies, and tariffs around the con ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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