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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 17 November 20
AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TO CHINA SLUMP, BUT PRICES ARE MIXED - REUTERS
China’s unofficial ban on coal imports from Australia is starting to take its toll on volumes, with departing cargoes down sharply so far in ...
Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously ex ...
Friday, 13 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Monday, 09 November 20
INDONESIA MAY CUT BIODIESEL USE TARGET AS SUBSIDY FUND DEPLETES - FITCH
The Indonesian government may rein in its push to increase use of biodiesel as it now comes at higher cost following a fall in crude oil prices and ...
Monday, 09 November 20
SOUTH AFRICA: COAL MARKET CONDITIONS HAVE ' DETERIORATED MATERIALLY' - IEEFA
The Asian seaborne thermal coal pool is drying out
Resource Generation Ltd’s proposed but long delayed Boikarabelo coal mine i ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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