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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 25 November 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: CHINA REMAINS THE DRIVING FACTOR, BUT COAL POLICY IS DISRUPTING THE MARKET - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The second half of the year has provided some cheer for the dry bulk market, with all ships in the spot market averaging earnings above the break-e ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
CHINA KICKS AN OWN GOAL WITH AUSTRALIAN COAL - FORBES
China’s annoyance at Australia’s hardline stance on political interference and demands for an independent inquiry into the root cause o ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
MINISTER - INDONESIA JAN-OCT COAL OUTPUT AT 459 MILLION TONNES - REUTERS
Indonesia coal output in the January to October period was 459 million tonnes, the country’s energy minister told parliament on Monday.
& ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
INDIA: MORE STEPS NEEDED TO MAKE COMMERCIAL COAL MINING ATTRACTIVE TO GLOBAL PLAYERS - LIVEMINT
India concluded its first commercial coal mine auctions earlier this month. A total of 19 coal mines spread across Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odish ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.38 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 129.21 points Monday, up 0.38 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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