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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 25 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Over 90% of the world’s goods are transported by sea. LPG is a clean, energy efficient and portable fuel that is being marketed at an afforda ...
Friday, 20 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 19 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we are moving towards the end of the year, the overall deal landscape of the dry bulk sector corresponding to the second half of 2020 (up to dat ...
Tuesday, 17 November 20
COAL SQUEEZE INTENSIFIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The message from the top is clear: cut out coal. While the regulatory pressure has been evident for some time, the race to banish the black stuff s ...
Tuesday, 17 November 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.35 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 128.72 points Monday, up 0.35 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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