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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
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Tuesday, 08 December 20
PANAMAX: THE OVERALL MARKET SEEMS TO BE UNDER NEGATIVE PRESSURE - ALLIED
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Friday, 04 December 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
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Friday, 04 December 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE REACHES THREE MONTH HIGH ON IMPROVING DEMAND OUTLOOK
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference reaches three month high on improving demand outlook . The Indonesia Coal Price Reference rose by& ...
Wednesday, 02 December 20
GLOBAL MINING SECTOR OUTLOOK STABLE DUE TO CHINA'S RECOVERY - FITCH RATINGS
China’s post-pandemic economic recovery and sizeable infrastructure-focused government stimulus boosted global metals and mining prices, help ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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