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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 14 December 20
PHILIPPINE BANK RCBC TO STOP LENDING FOR NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PROJECTS - MANILA BULLETIN
Yuchengco-led Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation (RCBC) has forthrightly declared that it will no longer extend financing to new coal-fired power ...
Sunday, 13 December 20
LONGSTANDING DOWNSIDE RISKS TO TRADE OUTLOOK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The OECD has attempted to put a positive spin on the trade message emanating from its latest economic outlook, released last week.
The ...
Sunday, 13 December 20
INDONESIA COAL OUTPUT AT 514 MILLION TONNES THIS YEAR, 2021 TARGET UNCHANGED - REUTERS
Indonesia coal output in the period to Dec. 10 stood at 514.2 million tonnes, official data from the energy ministry’s website showed.
&n ...
Thursday, 10 December 20
MALAYSIA'S CIMB ANNOUNCES COAL FINANCING PHASE-OUT BY 2040 AS ASIA'S FOSSIL FUEL DIVESTMENT DRIVE ACCELERATES - IEEFA
The first emerging markets bank to announce a progressive coal exit policy
Malaysia’s CIMB Group Holdings (CIMB) has announced ...
Wednesday, 09 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Heading towards the end of a difficult year and with the entire planet under the shadow of the covid-19 virus, it is interesting to proceed with a ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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